The Miami Heat entered the 2025-26 season with high expectations for Tyler Herro to build on his All-Star campaign and form a lethal scoring duo with Norman Powell. Instead, Herro’s injury-riddled season (missing the majority of games) has left that potential untapped, while Nikola Jović’s lack of growth has turned what looked like a promising young big into a roster question mark.
Tyler Herro: The Biggest “What If” of the Season
Herro has played in just 11 games this year — a brutal blow to a team already searching for consistent perimeter creation and shooting. In those appearances, he’s been productive offensively, but the Heat’s record in his games is a dismal 4-7.
- Herro’s impact issues:
- Still not a reliable defender — his weaknesses become magnified in playoff matchups against elite offenses.
- Insertion into the lineup disrupts flow for players who had grown accustomed to higher usage (Powell, Tyler Herro himself has struggled to find rhythm after long absences).
- Third-quarter collapses (a season-long problem) are even harder to overcome without his shot-making.
Spoelstra has yet to find a rotation that masks Herro’s defensive shortcomings while maximizing his scoring. With only 39 games maximum remaining (if he returns immediately), his trade value has taken a hit — he has just one more season after this on his deal. The Heat may now face a difficult offseason decision: extend him at a high number, trade him while value remains, or risk letting him walk.
The bigger concern: Herro’s most impactful playoff run remains his rookie season (2020 bubble). If Miami has to grind through the Play-In again, it’s hard to see him suddenly becoming a reliable top option in elimination games.
Nikola Jović: Zero Growth, Shrinking Role
Jović’s stagnation is the second-most glaring disappointment. The 22-year-old was extended based on potential after flashes in 2024-25, but he’s regressed in nearly every area:
- Minutes: Down to ~7 fewer MPG this season.
- eFG%: Dropped 12% while taking one fewer shot attempt — a sign of lost confidence and efficiency.
- 3PT%: A dismal 30.9% on wide-open looks.
- Turnovers: Higher than ever, diluting his transition game (his best attribute).
In Sunday’s 132-101 blowout win over the Wizards, Jović played just 6 minutes off the bench. Meanwhile, two-way signee Myron Gardner logged more than triple his minutes and outperformed him.
Spoelstra’s trust in Jović has evaporated. The young forward is no longer fluid in the half-court, can’t consistently shoot open threes, and his confidence visibly wanes after mistakes. At age 22, most of his development is now on him — but the Heat’s resources are increasingly going to younger players with higher upside.
Spoelstra on the Third-Quarter & Overall Issues
After Friday’s loss to Boston (another blown 21-point lead), Spoelstra admitted the third-quarter problems are a mystery:
“I don’t know. We’ve tried everything.”
Norman Powell called it the team’s “Achilles heel”:
“We have to put a full 48-minute game together… coming out at a pace of how we need to play in the same mentality when we start the games and then sustaining it through the second half.”
The Heat (28-26, 8th in East) have two games left before the break (Monday vs. Utah Jazz, another TBD). They need to fix the third-quarter flatness and blown leads — or risk another Play-In exit.
The Bigger Question for Miami
- Herro → Can he ever become a reliable playoff option, or is his ceiling limited by defense/injury?
- Jović → Is he still part of the future, or has he been passed by Gardner and others?
- Spoelstra → How long can “Heat Culture” overcome systemic issues without a major roster shakeup?
The Heat’s high ceiling remains — but the gap between aspiration and reality is widening. The offseason (especially the Giannis pursuit) will be make-or-break.
Heat fans — how frustrated are you with the third-quarter collapses and blown leads? Do you still believe in Herro’s long-term upside? And what’s the realistic path forward if Jović continues to stagnate? Drop your thoughts below — Miami needs answers fast.