The 2025-26 NBA season has been a masterpiece of basketball theater, and no team embodies the league’s shifting tectonic plates quite like the Houston Rockets.
With an 18-game sprint remaining before the postseason tips off, the Rockets sit comfortably at 40-24, holding down the third seed in a brutally competitive Western Conference. They’ve weathered injuries, lineup experiments, and the natural growing pains of a young core learning to win. And now, with the playoffs looming, they’re doing something that contenders do: they’re looking ahead, sizing up potential opponents, and identifying who they want to face.
According to USA Today’s Ben DuBose, who has spoken with internal sources, the Rockets have a clear preference when it comes to first-round matchups.
Mar 10, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets head coach Ime Udoka talks with forward Kevin Durant (7) during the second quarter against the Toronto Raptors at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
“The conversations that I have had internally, I get the sense that the Rockets… among preferred playoff matchups, I think they have the Lakers at the top of the list,” DuBose reported. “I think most teams in the West view the Lakers as the most vulnerable. For obvious reasons.”
Let that sink in. The Los Angeles Lakers—the league’s most glamorous franchise, the team with LeBron James and Luka Dončić, the team that always seems to find a way—are being viewed as the preferred opponent by a hungry, athletic Houston squad.
And when you look at the matchup on paper, it’s not hard to understand why.
THE SEASON SO FAR: Rockets Building Something Special
Before we dive into the playoff implications, let’s appreciate what the Rockets have accomplished this season.
Houston’s 40-24 record is no fluke. They’ve beaten good teams. They’ve won on the road. They’ve developed an identity rooted in defense, athleticism, and the kind of positional versatility that gives coaches nightmares.
Amen Thompson has been the story of the season for Houston. The second-year guard has exploded onto the scene, averaging career bests of 17.7 points and 5.3 assists. He’s doing it while anchoring the defense and playing multiple roles—point guard, wing defender, secondary playmaker. The preseason whispers about All-Star potential didn’t materialize, but Thompson has still delivered a breakout campaign that has Rockets fans dreaming of a bright future.
Alperen Sengun, fresh off his second consecutive All-Star selection, has been the rock in the middle. Though he’s faded slightly down the stretch—a common occurrence for young big men navigating their first full seasons as primary options—his overall body of work remains impressive. He’s the hub of Houston’s offense, a skilled passer and scorer who forces defenses to collapse.
And then there’s Reed Sheppard. The rookie has been nothing short of a revelation. Shooting 39.4 percent from three-point range while averaging 13.5 points, Sheppard has flashed the kind of true point guard abilities that this roster has lacked. He sees the floor. He makes the right read. He doesn’t play like a first-year player. In a draft class that was supposed to be about other names, Sheppard has emerged as one of the most impactful rookies in the league.
Together, this core has Houston positioned for its deepest playoff run since the James Harden era. But to get where they want to go, they’ll have to go through the Western Conference gauntlet.
THE LAKERS ADVANTAGE: Why Houston Wants This Matchup
So why the Lakers? Why would a young, ascending team want to face a franchise with LeBron James and Luka Dončić?
The answer, according to DuBose and the internal conversations he’s had, comes down to one word: athleticism.
“And I also think that’s a team where, we talk about the athleticism gap… I think the Rockets, you saw it on Christmas, would have the athleticism advantage against the Lakers,” DuBose said. “On paper, of the potential opponents, I think that’s the most friendly.”
Let’s break that down.
The Lakers are old. Not in the “veteran savvy” way that can be an advantage. Old in the “can’t keep up with younger, faster players” way that gets exposed in a seven-game series.
LeBron James, at 40, remains a marvel. He’s still putting up All-Star numbers. He’s still capable of taking over games. But he can’t do it for 38 minutes a night anymore. The mileage matters. The minutes add up. And against a team that runs and jumps and presses, LeBron’s limitations become magnified.
Luka Dončić, for all his brilliance, is not a plus athlete by NBA standards. He’s crafty, he’s skilled, he’s unguardable in isolation—but he’s not out-running anyone. He’s not out-jumping anyone. He’s not chasing Amen Thompson around screens for four quarters.
The rest of the Lakers roster? Austin Reaves is tough but not explosive. Rui Hachimura is solid but not special. The supporting cast is filled with veterans who know how to play but can’t match the Rockets’ physical tools.
Houston, by contrast, is young and bouncy. Thompson is a human pogo stick. Sengun, despite being a center, moves well for his size. Sheppard has quickness and shiftiness. The entire roster is built to pressure opponents, to force turnovers, to turn games into track meets.
And we’ve already seen what happens when these two teams meet.
THE CHRISTMAS DAY STATEMENT: A Blowout That Echoes
Remember Christmas Day? The NBA’s showcase holiday slate? The Rockets rolled into Los Angeles and absolutely demolished the Lakers.
It wasn’t close. It wasn’t competitive. It was a statement game—the kind of performance that makes opponents rethink their entire approach.
The Lakers were slow. They were old. They couldn’t keep up. The Rockets ran circles around them, attacking the rim, crashing the glass, flying around on defense. By the time the final buzzer sounded, the message was clear: This is not the same Lakers team that contenders used to fear.
The loss was so embarrassing that Lakers coach JJ Redick called a mandatory team meeting the following Saturday. That’s what happens when you get blown out on the biggest regular-season stage. Questions get asked. Answers are demanded. Confidence takes a hit.
For the Rockets, that game was validation. It showed them—and the rest of the league—that they can hang with the big boys. That their style works against elite competition. That they have a blueprint for beating the Lakers.
Now imagine that blueprint applied to a seven-game series. Imagine Thompson hounding Reaves for 94 feet. Imagine Sengun dragging Davis away from the rim. Imagine Sheppard coming off screens, pulling up from deep, forcing the Lakers’ slow-footed defenders to close out.
It’s a nightmare matchup for Los Angeles. And the Rockets know it.
THE ATHLETICISM GAP: Breaking Down the Numbers
Let’s get specific about what “athleticism advantage” actually means in basketball terms.
The Rockets rank in the top 10 in fast-break points, transition frequency, and deflections. They force turnovers and convert them into easy buckets. Their young legs allow them to play at a pace that wears down opponents over four quarters.
The Lakers, by contrast, rank near the bottom in virtually every athleticism-related metric. They’re 27th in pace of play. They’re 23rd in fast-break points allowed. They struggle to contain quick guards and athletic wings.
When you dig into the individual matchups, it gets even worse for Los Angeles.
Amen Thompson versus Austin Reaves: Thompson is longer, faster, more explosive. Reaves relies on craft and intelligence, but craft doesn’t matter when someone can simply jump over you.
Alperen Sengun versus Anthony Davis: This is the most fascinating matchup. Davis is one of the league’s best defenders, but Sengun’s skill set—his passing, his footwork, his ability to operate from the elbows—forces Davis away from his comfort zone. Can Davis guard Sengun on the perimeter for 35 minutes a game? History says no.
Reed Sheppard versus whoever the Lakers put on him: D’Angelo Russell? Too slow. Gabe Vincent? Too small. Max Christie? Too inexperienced. Sheppard’s combination of shooting and playmaking creates mismatches that the Lakers simply don’t have the personnel to handle.
And then there’s the bench. Houston’s second unit is younger, deeper, and more athletic. The Lakers’ bench is filled with veterans who can’t stay in front of anyone.
Over the course of a seven-game series, these advantages compound. The Rockets get stronger as the series wears on. The Lakers get tired.
THE VULNERABILITY FACTOR: Why Everyone Wants the Lakers
DuBose’s reporting includes a telling line: “I think most teams in the West view the Lakers as the most vulnerable.”
That’s a damning assessment of a team with two top-10 players. But it’s also an accurate one.
The Lakers are vulnerable because they’re old. They’re vulnerable because they lack depth. They’re vulnerable because their defensive scheme relies on effort and communication, two things that tend to break down over a long series. They’re vulnerable because LeBron, for all his greatness, can’t be the closer he once was for four consecutive quarters.
And they’re vulnerable because of what happened at the trade deadline. Acquiring Luka Dončić was a franchise-altering move, but it also created a roster imbalance. The Lakers gave up significant depth to get him. They’re now top-heavy, with two superstars and a collection of role players who don’t quite fit.
Against a team like Oklahoma City, that top-heavy approach might work. The Thunder are young but relatively inexperienced. Against Denver, maybe the Lakers can grind out wins with superstar shot-making. Against Minnesota, they’d have size issues.
But against Houston? Against a team that runs, jumps, and presses? That’s where the Lakers’ flaws become fatal.
THE ROCKETS’ MINDSET: Confidence Without Arrogance
Here’s what’s impressive about Houston’s internal chatter: It’s confident without being cocky.
The Rockets aren’t saying they want to avoid the Lakers. They’re not hoping for an easier path. They’re actively identifying the matchup they believe gives them the best chance to advance.
That’s the mindset of a team that believes in itself. That’s the mindset of a team that’s ready to compete.
Ime Udoka has instilled a culture in Houston that didn’t exist before he arrived. His teams play hard. They play smart. They play together. They don’t back down from anyone.
And when you combine that culture with the raw athleticism on the roster, you get a team that any opponent would prefer to avoid. Except, apparently, the Rockets themselves are the ones doing the avoiding.
They want the Lakers. They believe they can beat the Lakers. And after what we saw on Christmas Day, it’s hard to argue with them.
THE REMAINING SCHEDULE: Sorting Out the Bracket
Of course, wanting a matchup and getting it are two different things. The Rockets still have 18 games left in the regular season, and the Western Conference standings are far from settled.
Houston currently holds the third seed, which would put them in a first-round matchup against the sixth seed. As of today, that sixth seed belongs to the Denver Nuggets—a team the Rockets have gone 1-2 against this season, prior to their Wednesday night showdown.
But the standings are fluid. The Lakers, currently in the play-in mix, could easily climb to sixth. They could also fall to seventh or eighth, forcing them into the play-in tournament entirely. The Clippers, Timberwolves, and Warriors are all in the mix. Nothing is decided.
What the Rockets can control is their own performance. If they keep winning, they’ll secure the best possible seed and let the chips fall where they may. If they stumble, they could find themselves facing a different opponent entirely.
But internally, the preference is clear. They want the Lakers. They believe the Lakers are beatable. And they’re not afraid to say it.
THE PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS: What a Rockets-Lakers Series Would Mean
Let’s imagine it for a moment: Rockets versus Lakers, first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs.
The narratives write themselves.
LeBron James, at 40, trying to hold off Father Time and a pack of hungry young wolves. Luka Dončić, in his first playoff series as a Laker, facing a team that can actually match his team’s athleticism. JJ Redick, the rookie head coach, going against Ime Udoka, the battle-tested veteran who took his team to the Finals.
For the Rockets, it’s a chance to announce themselves as legitimate contenders. A series win over the Lakers would be a statement to the entire league: We’re here. We’re real. We’re coming.
For the Lakers, it’s a chance to prove the doubters wrong. To show that age is just a number. To remind everyone that as long as LeBron and Luka are on the floor, anything is possible.
The basketball would be electric. The pace would be frenetic. The matchups would be fascinating.
And based on everything we’ve seen this season, the Rockets would have the edge.
THE FINAL WORD: Houston’s Time Is Coming
The Rockets have been building toward this moment for years. They tanked, they drafted, they developed. They hired the right coach. They assembled the right mix of veterans and young talent. They created a culture of accountability and effort.
Now, with 18 games left in the regular season, they’re poised to make some noise. They’re not just happy to be in the playoffs. They want to win. They want to advance. They want to make a run.
And if they get their preferred matchup—if they draw the Lakers in the first round—they’ll have the confidence, the athleticism, and the game plan to make it happen.
The Western Conference playoffs are going to be a bloodbath. The Thunder are rising. The Nuggets are defending. The Timberwolves are lurking. The Mavericks have Luka’s former team ready to make a statement.
But don’t sleep on the Rockets. Don’t sleep on Amen Thompson’s two-way brilliance. Don’t sleep on Sengun’s skill. Don’t sleep on Sheppard’s shooting.
And definitely don’t sleep on their desire to face the Lakers.
Because in Houston, they believe. And in the playoffs, belief is half the battle.