The stage is set. The Miami Heat will be heading to Charlotte to face the Hornets in the 9-10 play-in game. The only way to punch their ticket into the playoffs is by winning two straight win-or-go-home games on the road, starting with a blazing offense in Charlotte led by LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Kon Knueppel.
The Heat are 3-1 against the Hornets this season, with two of those wins coming prior to the new calendar year when the new-look offense was peaking and the team was clicking. That record provides a glimmer of hope, but the play-in is a different beast entirely.
If you are looking for some positives to this matchup, the Heat should be able to score. When they face teams like Orlando or Toronto, the half-court offense is non-existent and their chances of winning are close to zero. But against Charlotte, they have averaged 126 points per game across four matchups this year. That part of the floor won’t be the issue.
The issue will be the defense, which has slipped against better teams this season, even with Bam Adebayo anchoring the paint. Here are three key things to watch for in this first play-in game.
1. An Early Look into the Lineup
There is some current buzz around Kel’el Ware’s finish to the regular season. His play has not only picked up as of late, but head coach Erik Spoelstra has prioritized his development. That included two straight starts to close the year, but it is unclear if that will continue into the play-in.
With the way Charlotte runs and lights it up from three-point range, Miami may not want to stay big to start games. Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Kel’el Ware can ideally spark something off the bench. Miami will almost certainly stick with Davion Mitchell, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Pelle Larsson, and Bam Adebayo to start.
The decision will come down to whether Spoelstra trusts Ware’s defense against Charlotte’s perimeter-oriented attack or whether he wants to keep a bigger lineup on the floor to control the glass. Either way, the Heat’s rotation will be under the microscope from the opening tip.
2. The X-Factor Position
The guard room is what it is at this stage: staggering the skill sets of Herro and Powell, plus the alternating Mitchell and Jakucionis minutes. The big man room is quite literally two guys: Adebayo and Ware.
But when it comes to this Charlotte matchup in particular, it is all about the wings. If Miami wants a shot at winning this game, it will be because two of the three of Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Pelle Larsson had big games.
Not only for perimeter defense purposes, but the wing position is also the real way to exploit this team offensively. Open floor fastbreaks, offensive rebounds and tip-ins, and overall chaotic second-action stuff. That position group can be the X-factor.
Wiggins brings veteran playoff experience. Jaquez brings energy and physicality. Larsson brings defensive versatility and a willingness to do the dirty work. If two of them show up on both ends of the floor, Miami’s chances increase significantly.
3. The Three-Point Battle
Lastly, it really is this simple: who is going to win the battle from beyond the arc?
It is Charlotte’s identity to take a ton of threes across the board from their primary guys. LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Kon Knueppel are all capable of getting hot and carrying the offense from deep. When they are hitting, the Hornets are nearly impossible to beat.
But when talking about a one-game sample, three-point shooting is what has lucked Miami out of most of their play-in wins in past years. Whether it was Davion Mitchell in Atlanta last year or the role players during the Jimmy Butler era, perimeter shooting clicking on a random night is sometimes all it takes.
The Heat have the shooters to compete. Herro is capable of explosive scoring nights. Powell has been a reliable catch-and-shoot threat. Mitchell can get hot from the corners. Even Adebayo has shown an improved mid-range and occasional three-point game.
Whoever wins the battle from deep will likely win the game.
The Verdict: A Winnable Game, But Far from Guaranteed
The Heat have beaten the Hornets three times this season. They have averaged 126 points per game against them. They have the veteran leadership and playoff experience that Charlotte lacks.
But the play-in tournament is chaos. One bad shooting night, one defensive breakdown, one untimely injury, and the season is over.
Miami can score. That much is clear. The question is whether they can defend well enough to give their offense a chance. The wings will need to be big. The three-point battle will need to be won. And Spoelstra will need to push the right buttons with his lineup decisions.
The stage is set. The Heat are heading to Charlotte. And the road to the playoffs starts now.