The Golden State Warriors are the NBA’s most recent dynasty, but with those days quietly drawing to a close, one of the league’s premier franchises has a serious decision to make.
Golden State finished the regular season with a record of 37-45, which placed them 10th in the Western Conference. That means to earn a spot in the playoffs, the Dubs must defeat the Los Angeles Clippers in L.A. on Wednesday night, April 15, in the play-in tournament.
The Warriors must then travel to either Phoenix or Portland and best the loser of Tuesday night’s No. 7 vs. No. 8 game between the Suns and Trail Blazers. Should Golden State win back-to-back road games, its reward will be the 8th seed in the West and a first-round showdown with the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.
AJ Dybantsa #3 of the BYU Cougars is atop the NBA Mock Draft 2026.
It is a tall order for a team that has been decimated by injuries all season. But the more complicated question is not whether the Warriors can win. It is whether they should want to.
The Case for Losing: A Shot at the Lottery
Anthony Slater of ESPN broke down the situation facing the four-time title trio of Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and head coach Steve Kerr during Tuesday’s edition of “NBA Today,” laying out why the better outcome organizationally is to lose and enter the draft lottery for the first time since 2021.
“They’re not not trying to get into the playoffs,” Slater said. “Steph’s gonna try to get hot. It’s a showcase stage for them. Draymond said it: they don’t have many of these type of nights left.”
“But I think it is fair to wonder organizationally whether it’s better for them to lose,” Slater continued, noting the Dallas Mavericks’ loss in the play-in tournament last year, which landed them the No. 1 pick and Cooper Flagg. “If the Warriors lose, they keep their lottery odds — 9.4 percent chance to jump into the top four [picks] this draft.”
A 9.4 percent chance might not sound like much. But in a draft class this deep, those odds could be the difference between extending the dynasty and entering a prolonged rebuild.
The Prize: A Historic Draft Class
James Wiseman Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers ten-day contract, Steve Kerr, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Warriors trade rumors
The 2026 draft class is one of the best in years, maybe decades, and potentially ever.
In some offseasons, there is not a franchise player to be had regardless of pick position. But this time around, any team in the top five (and potentially a few outside of it) will have an opportunity to nab a performer who could define an organization for years to come.
The headliner is BYU freshman AJ Dybantsa, a 6-foot-9 forward with a 7-foot-1 wingspan who has drawn comparisons to Kevin Durant and Tracy McGrady. He averaged 23.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game in his lone college season, shooting 48% from the field and 37% from three-point range.
But Dybantsa is not the only prize. Utah guard Darren Peterson is a 6-foot-6 combo guard with elite shot-making ability. Duke center Cameron Boozer (son of former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer) is a polished post scorer and rebounder. Rutgers guard Tyler Jackson is a dynamic playmaker who has drawn comparisons to Cade Cunningham.
Any one of those players could become the face of the Warriors’ next era. And Golden State has a 9.4 percent chance at landing a top-four pick.
The Case for Winning: The Warriors’ DNA
Of course, there is another side to this argument. The Warriors have never been a team that tanks. They have never been a team that embraces losing. And with Stephen Curry still on the roster, the idea of deliberately losing a game feels antithetical to everything the franchise stands for.
Curry is 38 years old. He is under contract for one more season. He has said repeatedly that he wants to compete for championships, not lottery picks.
Draymond Green, the emotional heart of the team, echoed that sentiment. “We don’t have many of these type of nights left,” he said.
The Warriors’ core is aging. Their window is closing. And every opportunity to compete—even as a massive underdog—is precious.
The Reality: A 2 Percent Chance
Winning their way through the play-in tournament will result in just a two percent chance of upsetting the Thunder in Round 1, according to ESPN analytics.
That is not a typo. Two percent.
The Thunder are the defending champions. They have the best record in the Western Conference. They are young, deep, and hungry. The Warriors, by contrast, are banged up, old, and limping toward the finish line.
Even if Golden State survives the play-in, the first round would likely be a swift and brutal end to their season.
The History: Missed Lottery Opportunities
The Warriors have missed on their last three picks inside the NBA draft lottery.
Golden State had the No. 2 pick in 2020 and went with big man James Wiseman, who ultimately became a bust. The Warriors selected twice in the lottery the following year, adding Jonathan Kuminga at No. 7 and Moses Moody with the 14th pick.
Kuminga displayed 20-point-per-game potential as an on-ball scorer but never really fit with how the Dubs play and ended up traded to the Atlanta Hawks earlier this season after years of a publicly strained relationship with Kerr.
Moody has proven a solid piece for Golden State but never played more than 24 minutes per game or averaged more than 10 points per night until this season, which he will finish watching from the sidelines due to a torn patellar tendon in his left knee.
The Warriors once talked about threading the needle between two timelines, in which they would continue competing for championships like the one they captured in 2022 and build for the future. But with Wiseman and Kuminga now elsewhere, and Moody merely a quality role player, those days and hopes are long gone.
The Offseason Ahead: Curry’s Last Ride?
Golden State intends to compete for a title next season, which is the last that Curry is under contract and in which he will turn 39 years old. That should make the summer interesting in the Bay Area with regards to free agency and trade discussions.
But the best chance now for the Warriors to matter next year, and in the seasons beyond, is for the team to enter the lottery, find a little luck, and land a potential superstar.
Doing so, however, means losing this week, which simply isn’t part of the franchise’s DNA.
The Verdict: A No-Win Situation
The Warriors are in a no-win situation. If they win, they face a near-impossible path to the championship and lose their lottery odds. If they lose, they betray their competitive spirit and risk alienating a fan base that expects greatness.
There is no easy answer. There is no right answer.
Curry will try to get hot. The Warriors will try to win. And whatever happens, the organization will have to live with the consequences.
But one thing is clear: the dynasty is fading. And the decisions made this week—and this offseason—will determine whether the Warriors can build a new one or fade into irrelevance.
The play-in tips off Wednesday night. The lottery odds hang in the balance. And the future of the Golden State Warriors has never been more uncertain.