The Boston Celtics open as massive 8.5-point favorites to beat the Philadelphia 76ers in Saturday’s Game 7 and advance to the second round of the playoffs. Despite the higher seed, home-court advantage at TD Garden, and their clear superiority over the course of the regular season, these early betting odds have raised eyebrows across the NBA landscape.
The surprise stems from a stark recent trend: the 76ers have completely outplayed Joe Mazzulla’s team over the last two games. Philadelphia has beaten Boston by an average margin of 14.5 points while shooting an impressive 47% from the field and 38% from three-point range. In contrast, the Celtics — who have notably shied away from their trademark “live and die by the three” approach — have managed just 41% shooting from the field and a dismal 29% from beyond the arc, averaging only 95.0 points per game during this stretch.
Yet, as the series reaches its dramatic climax, the betting market is delivering what many are calling surprisingly good news for Boston heading into the decisive showdown.
The 76ers, powered by All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey’s 30 points, pulled off a comfortable 106-93 victory in Thursday’s Game 6 to force the winner-take-all Game 7. Nick Nurse’s squad had looked destined for elimination after falling behind 3-1, with few analysts giving them a realistic path back into the series. However, the return of Joel Embiid has provided a massive boost. The 2023 NBA MVP has served as both an offensive hub and facilitator from the low post, recording a combined 16 assists across Philadelphia’s two straight wins.
Still, the Celtics remain heavy favorites at home, a reflection of their underlying talent, regular-season dominance, and the historical challenges of closing out a series on the road for an underdog like the 76ers.
One concerning trend for Boston has been its inefficient three-point shooting, particularly at home. Jaylen Brown and company are now 1-7 this season when shooting less than 30% from deep, a mark that includes Tuesday’s Game 5 loss when they went just 11-for-39 from distance.
Looking ahead to Game 7, ESPN’s Tim Bontemps offered a clear lens through which the outcome may be determined. “The story of this series has been pretty simple: In the three games Boston has won, it has shot almost 42% from 3-point range. In the three games the Celtics have lost, they have shot under 30% from 3,” Bontemps wrote.
“It’s dangerous to simplify things to that degree, but it’s consistent with how the Celtics have typically played under coach Joe Mazzulla. Boston is now 17-1 when it shoots 40% or better in the playoffs, and 19-19 when it shoots under 40% — including 4-9 when it shoots under 30%. For all the strategic things that can be discussed about this matchup, if you could predict Boston’s 3-point shooting percentage Saturday, you’d have a pretty good indication of how this game will go.”
Nurse, for his part, is urging his team to maintain focus and avoid complacency after stringing together two impressive victories.
“I think we played really well. I think that it doesn’t really matter that much, though,” Nurse said. “I mean, we’ve seen games like this. This is just one game. That’s one story. And you’re going to go back, and it’s just not going to flip a switch and happen again. … We’re going to have to really, really dig in and focus and prepare and get ready for adjustments, and we’re going to have to give a tremendous effort. It’s nice to win a couple in a row and it’s nice to win, play the way we did tonight, but it really does not matter. Each game’s its own game.”
Celtics vs. 76ers Game 7 tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at TD Garden and will be broadcast nationally on NBC and Peacock.
While the 76ers have momentum and a dangerous trio of Maxey, Embiid, and Paul George firing on all cylinders, the Celtics’ status as heavy favorites signals that the betting public — and the analytics — still heavily favor Boston’s ability to rediscover its elite three-point shooting form on their home floor. In a series defined by variance from beyond the arc, one explosive shooting night from the Celtics could end Philadelphia’s spirited comeback bid and send Boston marching into the second round.