While the Denver Nuggets’ biggest free-agent priority this offseason is widely viewed as restricted free agent Peyton Watson, another important name is headed for the open market: Tim Hardaway Jr.
After just one season in Denver, Hardaway made a significant impact as a vital piece of the Nuggets’ second unit. His contributions were so strong that he finished in the top three of the league’s Sixth Man of the Year voting, cementing his role as one of the most effective bench scorers in the NBA.
However, despite the mutual success, a return to the Mile High City appears highly unlikely. The primary obstacle isn’t effort or desire — it’s simple financial reality.
A Perfect Fit on the Court
In 26 minutes per game during the 2025-26 season, Hardaway Jr. averaged 13.5 points on 44.7% shooting from the field and an excellent 40.7% from three-point range. He added 2.6 rebounds and 1.4 assists per night.
His ability to space the floor, provide instant offense off the bench, and seamlessly integrate into Denver’s top-ranked offense made him one of the smartest acquisitions of the previous offseason. For a team built around Nikola Jokić’s playmaking, Hardaway’s shooting and scoring punch off the bench was a natural complement.
Other teams around the league took notice. With more cap flexibility than the Nuggets, several contenders and rebuilding squads see Hardaway as an attractive target — someone worth more than the veteran minimum and potentially worthy of a mid-level exception deal.
The Harsh Financial Reality
The Nuggets currently sit more than $16 million over the luxury tax line. When factoring in cap holds for Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones, that figure balloons to over $70 million above the cap, according to CapSheets.com.
As a result, Denver enters the offseason in a restrictive position. Rather than adding pieces, the front office will likely need to shed salary where possible to get under the tax and preserve the flexibility required to re-sign their own pending free agents, particularly the highly valued Watson.
In this environment, retaining Hardaway on a deal that reflects his strong season and market value becomes extremely difficult. The financial flexibility simply isn’t there.
Last Chance at a Payday
At 34 years old, Hardaway Jr. is entering the back nine of his NBA career. This upcoming free agency likely represents his final realistic opportunity to secure a substantial contract.
While it’s possible he could accept a pay cut to stay with a championship-contending Nuggets team chasing unfinished business, such a decision would be surprising. Both Hardaway and his representatives would have strong incentive to capitalize on what could be his last significant payday.
Bottom Line
Nothing is impossible in an NBA offseason, and the Nuggets have shown creativity in roster construction before. Yet the combination of Denver’s steep luxury tax position, the need to retain younger talent, and Hardaway’s age and market value all point in one direction: a second season together is far from the most probable outcome.
For Nuggets fans who grew to appreciate Hardaway’s instant offense and professionalism, this development will sting. But from a business standpoint, it’s the expected result of a franchise operating deep into the luxury tax with multiple key players to retain.
The Nuggets will have to find their next bench spark elsewhere. Tim Hardaway Jr.’s impactful Denver chapter, it seems, is likely to end after just one memorable season.