For the second straight season, the Houston Rockets are watching the playoffs from their couches. That was not the plan.
When the Rockets traded for Kevin Durant, the expectation was a deep playoff run. A Western Conference Finals appearance, at minimum. Maybe even a shot at the Larry O’Brien trophy.
Instead, they crashed out in the first round. Again. Injuries, inconsistent production, and a roster that never quite gelled led to a season of what-ifs and frustration.
Now, the Rockets enter the 2026 offseason with more questions than answers. What do they do with Durant? Can Fred VanVleet return to form after his ACL tear? Is this young core actually ready to win?
But before any of those questions can be answered, the Rockets have to nail the NBA Draft. And unlike previous years, they don’t have a lottery pick. They have two second-round selections: No. 39 and No. 53.
That’s not sexy. It’s not going to generate headlines. But in a draft that’s deeper than people think, those two picks could be the difference between another first-round exit and a legitimate resurgence.
Let me break down the Rockets’ two biggest weaknesses, the prospects who can fill those holes, and why this draft is more important than Houston fans realize.
The Rockets’ Two Biggest Weaknesses
Before we talk about prospects, let’s talk about what went wrong.
Weakness No. 1: Perimeter Shooting
The Rockets ranked 10th in the NBA in three-point percentage. On the surface, that sounds respectable. But here’s the catch: they were 10th because they barely shot any threes. Volume matters.
Houston finished 25th in three-pointers made per game. That’s not a playoff team. That’s a team that gets exposed in the postseason.
And exposed they were.
In the playoffs, the Rockets shot a miserable 30.2% from three-point range across six games. That ranked dead last among all first-round teams. Not 14th. Not 12th. Dead last.
When the game slowed down and defenses tightened, Houston had no answer. They couldn’t space the floor. They couldn’t punish defenses for collapsing on Durant. They couldn’t keep up with teams that had four shooters on the court at all times.
Weakness No. 2: True Point Guard
Fred VanVleet missed the entire season with a torn ACL. His absence was devastating.
Without him, the Rockets had no one to steady the offense. No one to initiate the pick-and-roll. No one to make the right read in crunch time.
The results were predictable. Houston ranked 24th in turnovers per game. They lacked ball security. They lacked a floor general. They lacked the kind of veteran presence that prevents fourth-quarter collapses.
VanVleet will return next season, but he’s coming off a major knee injury. He’ll be 32 years old. And even if he’s 100%, the Rockets need depth behind him.
The Draft Opportunity: Why the Second Round Matters
Let me address the elephant in the room.
Second-round picks are not lottery picks. They’re not guaranteed to become rotation players. Most second-rounders are out of the league within three years.
But this draft is different. The 2026 class is deep with experienced college players — guys who stayed four years, who know how to play winning basketball, who can contribute immediately.
The Rockets have two swings at the plate. At No. 39 and No. 53, they can add two rotational pieces on cheap rookie contracts. In a salary-cap-strapped league, that’s gold.
The Shooters: Who Houston Should Target at No. 39
Let me start with the most pressing need: shooting.
At No. 39, the Rockets should be looking at three prospects in particular.
Alex Karaban – UConn
Karaban is a 6-foot-8 forward who has done nothing but win at UConn. He’s a career 38% three-point shooter who moves well without the ball, understands spacing, and never takes bad shots. He’s not an athlete, but he’s a basketball player. In Houston’s system, he could be a poor man’s Duncan Robinson — a floor spacer who keeps defenses honest.
Milan Momcilovic – Iowa State
Momcilovic is a 6-foot-8 sharpshooter with a lightning-quick release. He shot nearly 40% from three over his college career. He’s comfortable shooting off screens, off the dribble, and in catch-and-shoot situations. Defensively, he’s a liability — but the Rockets can hide him. They need shooting above all else.
Andrej Stojaković – Illinois
Yes, that Stojaković. The son of Peja. At 6-foot-5, he’s smaller than the other two, but his shooting mechanics are pure. He grew up around the NBA. He knows what it takes. He didn’t shoot enough at Illinois, but the talent is there. If he’s available at No. 39, the Rockets should take a flier.
Any of these three would immediately improve Houston’s three-point shooting. They’re not stars. They’re role players. But role players who can shoot are exactly what the Rockets need.
The Veterans at No. 53: Older, Cheaper, Ready to Play
Let me talk about the second pick.
At No. 53, the Rockets aren’t looking for upside. They’re looking for a player who can step into the rotation on Day 1. That means older prospects — guys who stayed in college for four or five years and have nothing left to prove.
Richie Saunders – BYU
Saunders is a 6-foot-5 guard who spent five years in college. He’s a career 37% three-point shooter. He plays with energy. He defends. He rebounds. He does all the little things that winning teams need. He’s not going to be a star, but he could be a rotation player for a decade. That’s incredible value at No. 53.
Nick Martinelli – Northwestern
Martinelli is a 6-foot-7 wing who was the heart and soul of Northwestern’s offense. He averaged nearly 20 points per game as a senior. He’s a capable shooter (36% from three) and a smart passer. He’s also a plus defender who can guard multiple positions. He’s the kind of player who coaches love — reliable, tough, and always in the right spot.
Both Saunders and Martinelli are older. Both are ready to contribute immediately. Both would be steals at No. 53.
The Point Guard Options: If the Rockets Go Another Direction
Let me quickly address the other need: true point guard.
If the Rockets decide to prioritize ball-handling over shooting, there are options.
Jaden Bradley – Arizona
Bradley just won Big 12 Player of the Year. He’s a 6-foot-3 point guard who controls the game with his pace and decision-making. He’s not a great shooter (32% from three), but he’s a brilliant passer and a tenacious defender. He would be a perfect backup to Fred VanVleet.
Braden Smith – Purdue
Smith is a 6-foot point guard who is a passing savant. He led the nation in assists per game as a senior. The knock on him is his size — he’ll get hunted on defense in the NBA. But his basketball IQ is off the charts. In the right system, he could be a valuable backup.
Tyler Tanner – Vanderbilt
Tanner is a wild card. Some mock drafts have him going in the late first round. Others have him falling to the second. He’s a 6-foot-4 combo guard who can score from all three levels. If he’s available at No. 39, the Rockets should sprint to the podium. But he’s unlikely to be there.
The VanVleet Factor: Why Depth Matters
Let me remind you why point guard depth is so critical.
Fred VanVleet is 32 years old. He’s coming off a torn ACL. Even in the best-case scenario, he’s going to miss games. He’s going to be on a minutes restriction. He’s going to need rest on back-to-backs.
The Rockets cannot afford to be without a competent backup. Last season, they had no one. The result was 24th in turnovers and a first-round exit.
If Houston can add a player like Bradley or Smith at No. 39, they immediately solve that problem. VanVleet plays 28 minutes a night. The rookie plays 20. Everyone stays fresh. The offense doesn’t crater when VanVleet sits.
That’s the kind of smart, boring move that wins championships.
What About Trading the Picks?
Let me address the obvious question: why not trade the picks for a veteran?
The Rockets could certainly package No. 39 and No. 53 with a player to acquire a proven rotation piece. That’s always an option.
But here’s the counterargument: the Rockets are already over the luxury tax. They have expensive veterans. They have Durant’s massive contract. Adding another veteran through trade would only increase their tax bill.
Second-round picks are cheap. They don’t count much against the cap. And if you hit on one, you have a rotation player on a rookie deal for four years.
In today’s NBA, that’s how you build depth without breaking the bank.
The Mock Draft: What the Rockets Should Do
Let me give you a specific plan.
At No. 39: Take Alex Karaban.
He’s the safest pick. He’s a proven winner. He’s a career 38% shooter from three. He fits perfectly next to Durant and Sengun. He won’t be a star, but he’ll be a rotation player for the next decade.
At No. 53: Take Richie Saunders.
He’s older. He’s ready. He shoots, defends, and rebounds. He’s the kind of player who will be in the league for 10 years because he does everything right. At No. 53, that’s a steal.
Sign an undrafted point guard. If Bradley or Smith isn’t available, the Rockets can find a floor general in free agency or as an undrafted free agent. There are always veteran point guards willing to sign for the minimum.
Final Verdict: The Draft Won’t Save Houston, But It Can Help
Here’s my honest take.
The Rockets are not one draft away from contention. They have bigger issues — chemistry, health, coaching, roster construction — that won’t be solved by two second-round picks.
But the draft can help. It can add shooting. It can add depth. It can add a backup point guard who can steady the offense when VanVleet rests.
The difference between a 45-win team and a 50-win team is often the bench. And the difference between a 50-win team and a championship contender is often one or two role players who exceed expectations.
The Rockets have two swings at the plate. They need to hit on both.
One thing’s certain: The 2026 NBA Draft won’t define the Rockets’ future. But it could be the first step in fixing a roster that has more holes than anyone in Houston wants to admit.