The Golden State Warriors just finished a season that, by their dynastic standards, was an unmitigated disaster.
Thirty-seven wins. Forty-five losses. The 10th seed in the Western Conference. A play-in victory over the Clippers that gave fans a flicker of hope, followed immediately by a play-in loss to the Suns that extinguished it.
Injuries ravaged the roster. Jimmy Butler — gone for the season in January. Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Al Horford all missed significant time. Kristaps Porzingis, acquired in the Jonathan Kuminga trade, could barely stay on the court. Moses Moody suffered a season-ending injury.
The Warriors aren’t just old. They’re broken. And now, entering the 2026 offseason, they face a series of impossible choices.
According to Tim Kawakami of the San Francisco Standard, the harsh reality is setting in. The Warriors can’t keep everyone. They can’t rely on injured veterans. And they have to decide, once and for all, whether they’re trying to win one more title with Stephen Curry or finally blowing it up.
Let me break down every major decision facing Golden State this offseason — from the Porzingis-Horford dilemma to the lottery pick at No. 11 to the trade chips that could reshape the roster.
The Kawakami Reality Check: ‘They Can’t Keep Both’
Let’s start with the most sobering analysis of the offseason.
Tim Kawakami has covered the Warriors for decades. He knows the organization inside and out. And his recent piece for the San Francisco Standard pulled no punches.
Here’s the key passage:
*“The Warriors didn’t load up their roster with recently wounded players on purpose. It just worked out that way — and, as Kerr emphasized on Friday — the five or six guys who couldn’t play back-to-backs or needed week-long breaks here or there just locked up most of the Warriors’ day-to-day lineup decisions. Also, Butler and Moody will count on the roster but won’t be playing for a while next season. So the other 13 spots shouldn’t and can’t be filled with players likely to miss a lot of time.”*
Let me translate that: The Warriors’ roster is full of players who cannot be relied upon to actually play basketball. Butler is recovering from a torn ACL. Moody is recovering from a season-ending injury. Porzingis is always hurt. Horford is 40 years old. Curry and Green need load management.
That’s not a team. That’s a hospital ward.
Kawakami then dropped the hammer on the front office’s biggest dilemma:
“In this environment, I don’t see how the Warriors can bring back both Kristaps Porzingis (unrestricted free agent) and Al Horford (player option for next season), even if both are interested in returning. I think they’re not likely to bid too high if De’Anthony Melton declines his player option. And I don’t see much chance of using up a roster spot for Seth Curry again.”
Let me break down what that means.
The Porzingis vs. Horford Dilemma: One Has to Go
Let me put this in plain terms.
Kristaps Porzingis is an unrestricted free agent. He’s 31 years old. He’s 7-foot-3. He can stretch the floor and protect the rim. He’s also made of glass. He played sparingly for the Warriors after the trade and couldn’t stay healthy.
Al Horford has a player option for next season. He’s 40 years old. He’s been a professional for two decades. He’s a locker room legend. But Father Time is undefeated, and Horford cannot play back-to-backs anymore.
The Warriors cannot keep both. They might not be able to keep either.
If Porzingis wants to return, he’ll want a multi-year deal. He’s only 31. This is his last chance at a significant contract. But the Warriors cannot afford to give a long-term deal to a player who misses 30 games a season.
If Horford opts in, he’ll cost the Warriors roughly $10 million. That’s not nothing. And he’ll take up a roster spot that could go to a younger, healthier player.
Kawakami’s argument is simple: the Warriors need players who can actually play. Porzingis and Horford, through no fault of their own, are not those players anymore.
The Lottery Pick: No. 11 and the Path to Improvement
Here’s where things get interesting.
The Warriors hold the 11th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. It’s not a top-10 pick, but it’s close. And in a draft that’s reportedly deep with high-end talent, No. 11 could land a starter or a key rotational piece.
Sam Gordon of the San Francisco Chronicle put it this way:
*“The most immediate way to improve is through the 11th pick in a draft that’s armed with depth and high-end talent, particularly in the top half of the first round. Golden State stands to add a starter or rotational contributor.”*
The Warriors have three options with this pick:
Option 1: Keep it and draft a rookie. They could add a young, cheap, healthy player who can contribute immediately. Given their cap situation, a rookie-scale contract is incredibly valuable.
Option 2: Trade it for a veteran. The Warriors have four first-round picks available as trade chips. They could package No. 11 with other assets to bring in a proven player who can help Curry win now.
Option 3: Trade down. If the player they want isn’t available at No. 11, they could move back, acquire additional assets, and still get a contributor.
Given the Warriors’ win-now timeline with Curry, Option 2 is the most likely. But Option 1 shouldn’t be dismissed — especially if a talented big man or wing falls to them.
The Trade Chips: What Golden State Can Offer
Let me walk you through the Warriors’ war chest.
Four first-round draft picks. That’s the headline. The Warriors have accumulated picks over the years and can offer them in trades. In the NBA, picks are currency. And Golden State has a lot of it.
Brandin Podziemski. This is the big one. In just his third season, Podziemski delivered his best year across the board. He was the Warriors’ best player not named Curry or Butler. He’s still on a team-friendly contract. And he’s exactly the kind of young, versatile guard that contenders covet.
The Warriors are unlikely to trade Podziemski unless they’re desperate. But if a star becomes available, he’s the centerpiece of any deal.
Expiring contracts. Jimmy Butler is on an expiring deal. Draymond Green has a player option. Both contracts are large and could be used to match salary in a trade for a star.
**The non-taxpayer mid-level exception (15million).∗∗Thisishuge.TheWarriorscanofferafreeagentupto15million).∗∗Thisishuge.TheWarriorscanofferafreeagentupto15 million per year without it counting against the cap in a restrictive way. That’s enough to sign a quality starter or a high-end role player.
The biannual exception ($5.5 million). A smaller chip, but still useful for depth.
Gordon summed it up perfectly:
*“Beyond the pick, the Warriors have the non-taxpayer mid-level exception — worth 15million—toofferanunrestrictedfreeagentinadditiontothe5.5 million biannual exception. Top trade chips include four first-round draft picks, Podziemski, and the expiring contracts of Butler and Green, should he elect to exercise his player option.”*
The Jimmy Butler Question: What Happens Next?
Let me address the elephant in the room.
Jimmy Butler tore his right ACL in January. He’s out for the foreseeable future. He’s on an expiring contract. And the Warriors have expressed “optimism” about his return and rehabilitation for 2026-27.
But let’s be real: Butler will be 37 years old when he returns from an ACL tear. That’s not a recipe for success.
The Warriors have three options with Butler:
Option 1: Keep him. Let him rehab, hope he returns to form, and try to make one more run with a healthy Butler, Curry, and Green. This is the sentimental choice.
Option 2: Trade his expiring contract. Butler’s $40+ million expiring deal is valuable as salary ballast. The Warriors could package it with picks and Podziemski to acquire a star who can actually play.
Option 3: Let him walk. If Butler opts out (he won’t) or the Warriors decline to bring him back, they could use the cap space elsewhere.
The smart money is on Option 2. The Warriors cannot afford to waste another year of Curry’s prime waiting for a 37-year-old to recover from a major knee injury.
The Draymond Green Situation: Foundation or Trade Chip?
Let me talk about Draymond Green, because his situation is more complicated than it seems.
Green has a player option for next season. If he opts in, he’ll make roughly $27 million. If he opts out, he’ll become a free agent.
Green is a Warriors legend. He’s the defensive anchor. He’s the emotional heart of the team. He’s also 36 years old, declining offensively, and increasingly difficult to rely on for 82 games.
If Green opts in, the Warriors have a decision to make: keep him as a foundational piece, or trade his expiring contract as part of a larger deal.
If Green opts out, the Warriors could let him walk or sign him to a smaller, team-friendly deal.
Mike Dunleavy Jr., the Warriors’ general manager, has been clear about wanting to keep the team’s identity intact. But identity doesn’t win games. Talent does.
What Dunleavy Said: ‘We’re Probably Always in the Conversation’
Let me close the trade section with a quote from the man in charge.
Mike Dunleavy Jr. recently addressed the Warriors’ approach to the offseason. Here’s what he said:
“As far as trade acquisition stuff, I mean, we’re probably always in the conversation, frankly, because we have the draft capital to be. So we’ll always look at stuff, whatever we can do to make the team better that makes sense now and in the future.”
That’s GM-speak for: we have assets, we’re willing to use them, but we’re not going to be stupid about it.
The Warriors are “in the conversation” for any star who becomes available. They have the picks. They have Podziemski. They have expiring contracts. They have the mid-level exception.
But Dunleavy also emphasized the need to balance “now and in the future.” That means they’re not going to mortgage the next five years for one last shot with Curry.
The Cap Situation: Room to Operate
Let me give you a quick overview of the Warriors’ cap situation, because it’s not as dire as you might think.
The Warriors are projected to have room to operate below certain apron thresholds. That means they can pursue targeted additions without triggering harsh luxury tax penalties.
They have the $15 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception. That’s a legitimate tool to sign a quality starter.
They have the $5.5 million biannual exception. That’s depth.
They have four first-round picks to trade. That’s ammo.
The problem isn’t the cap space. The problem is the roster construction. Too many old players. Too many injured players. Too many players who can’t be counted on.
The Bottom Line: What Should the Warriors Do?
Here’s my honest take.
The Golden State Warriors are not one player away. They’re not two players away. They’re a complete roster overhaul away.
Stephen Curry is still elite. He’s still capable of leading a championship team. But he cannot do it alone. He cannot do it with a supporting cast that spends half the season in street clothes.
The Warriors need to make hard decisions this offseason.
Keep Curry. Obviously. Non-negotiable.
Trade Butler’s expiring contract. Attach picks if necessary. Bring back a young, healthy contributor.
Let Porzingis walk. He’s too expensive and too injured. Use the $15 million exception on a big man who can actually play 70 games.
Let Horford opt in or out, but don’t rely on him. If he stays, great — veteran leadership. If he leaves, fine — more minutes for younger players.
Keep Podziemski unless a star becomes available. He’s the future. Don’t trade him for a rental.
Use the No. 11 pick wisely. Either draft a ready-now contributor or package it with other assets for a proven player.
Sign a free agent with the mid-level exception. A 3-and-D wing. A backup point guard. A rim-running center. Just get someone who can play.
The Warriors don’t need to blow it up. But they do need to retool aggressively. The Curry era is winding down. They have maybe two more years of elite-level Steph.
Every decision this offseason should be made with that timeline in mind.
Final Verdict: Hard Choices Ahead
Here’s where we land.
The Golden State Warriors are at a crossroads. Their dynasty is not dead — but it’s on life support. The roster is old, injured, and expensive. The front office has assets, but not infinite patience.
Tim Kawakami is right: they can’t keep both Porzingis and Horford. They probably can’t keep either. They need players who can actually play basketball, not just collect checks.
The No. 11 pick is an opportunity. The $15 million exception is a tool. The four first-round picks are ammunition.
But none of that matters if the Warriors don’t make the right decisions. And the right decisions are the hard ones.
Letting go of fan favorites. Moving on from injured veterans. Building a roster that can actually survive an 82-game season.
Stephen Curry deserves better than a 37-win season. The question is whether the Warriors’ front office can give it to him.
One thing’s certain: This offseason will define the final chapter of the Curry era. And the clock is ticking.