The future of Quinten Post with the Golden State Warriors has suddenly grown cloudy as the Dutch big man heads into restricted free agency this offseason. After showing genuine promise as a rookie, the seven-footer’s sophomore campaign fell short of expectations, and now one prominent insider is suggesting the organization may be ready to move on after just two seasons.
According to Nick Friedell of The Athletic, Post has been assigned just a 15% chance of returning to the Warriors next season—the lowest figure among any player on the roster. That remarkably low projection comes despite Post’s meaningful contributions during his first year and occasional praise from head coach Steve Kerr.
“Post’s future largely hinges on what happens with Horford and Porziņģis,” Friedell wrote. “Post fell out of the rotation at the end of the season, but Kerr has praised his talent at various points and offered optimism about his potential success in the league.”
The timing of Golden State’s acquisition of former All-Star Kristaps Porzingis at the February trade deadline has only fueled speculation. Many viewed the move as a clear signal that the front office lacked full confidence in Post’s development as a long-term option at center.
Strikingly, players with far more limited roles this season were given higher odds of returning. Seth Curry, who appeared in only 10 games and logged fewer than 135 total minutes, was assigned a 30% chance. Even Charles Bassey, who saw action in just five games late in the regular season, received a 20% probability—higher than Post.
A premature exit?
While the numbers paint a pessimistic picture, dismissing Post outright could prove shortsighted. His rookie season featured real impact, highlighted by elite floor-spacing ability as a 7-footer. He knocked down 40.8% of his three-pointers that year—tops on the team—echoing the sharp shooting (42.6% and 43.1% from deep) he displayed in his final two collegiate seasons.
This past season, Post’s three-point percentage dipped to 33.6%, and his overall role diminished as the year progressed. Yet he demonstrated encouraging defensive progress earlier in the campaign. If Post can build on those defensive strides and regain his shooting touch, he possesses the tools to carve out a meaningful NBA career in today’s stretch-big-driven league.
A floor-spacing seven-footer remains a highly valuable commodity, virtually guaranteeing Post interest from other teams if he does not re-sign with Golden State. Even if his reputation took a hit in the second half of this season, the 15% projection feels notably harsh given his proven potential and the relatively small sample of his early career.
As the Warriors navigate their roster decisions this summer, the Post situation stands out as one of the more intriguing subplots. Will the franchise bet on the upside that once excited them, or will they pivot toward more established options like Porzingis? For now, the insider’s take delivers a clear bombshell: Quinten Post’s time in the Bay Area appears to be hanging by a thread.