The Los Angeles Lakers’ backcourt took a significant hit this week with the news of Austin Reaves’ injury, but now we have a clearer picture of when the star guard might return to the court. On Friday, the Lakers officially announced that Reaves has been diagnosed with a grade 2 left calf strain and will be re-evaluated in four weeks. However, renowned injury expert Jeff Stotts has provided a more detailed prognosis, suggesting a longer absence that could extend beyond the NBA All-Star break.
Stotts, a certified athletic trainer known for his accurate predictions on player injuries, took to X (formerly Twitter) to break down the situation. “Austin Reaves Injury News: The calf muscle complex is comprised of multiple muscles, including the two-headed gastrocnemius muscle and the soleus. The muscles share a conjoined tendon, the Achilles. The average time lost for all Grade 2 calf strains in the NBA is ~40.1 days,” he posted on December 26, 2025. This timeline indicates Reaves could miss at least 40 days, pushing his potential return to mid-February or later.
Stotts’ track record adds weight to this assessment. He has successfully forecasted recovery periods for several NBA players, including San Antonio Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama, whom he predicted would be sidelined for at least 30 days due to a similar calf strain—a timeline that proved spot-on.
Potential Games Missed and Return Date Speculation
If Reaves adheres to Stotts’ estimated 40-day minimum, he could be out for up to 20 upcoming Lakers games. This includes high-profile matchups such as:
- January 7: vs. San Antonio Spurs
- January 20: vs. Denver Nuggets
- January 24: vs. Dallas Mavericks
- February 1: vs. New York Knicks
- February 7: vs. Golden State Warriors
The NBA All-Star break is scheduled from February 13-20, 2026, with the main festivities occurring in Los Angeles from February 13-15. Historically, teams err on the side of caution with injuries around this period, often opting to hold players out until after the break to ensure full recovery. As a result, Reaves might not suit up again until the Lakers’ first post-break game on February 20 against the LA Clippers.
Embed X: https://twitter.com/InStreetClothes/status/2004746183978401909
This conservative approach makes sense given the nature of calf strains, which can be prone to re-injury if rushed. The Lakers, currently navigating a competitive Western Conference, will need to rely on their depth in the meantime, with players like D’Angelo Russell and Gabe Vincent likely seeing increased minutes.
Impact on Awards and Individual Accolades
The timing of this injury couldn’t be worse for Reaves’ award aspirations. As a fifth-year guard who entered the league undrafted, Reaves has been a breakout star this season, making him a strong contender for Most Improved Player, an All-NBA Team spot, and even an All-Star selection. However, missing extended time will disqualify him from these honors under NBA eligibility rules, which require a minimum number of games played.
Fans can still vote for Reaves in the All-Star balloting, but it’s unlikely that coaches and media voters—the other key stakeholders—will select him given the absence. Reaves’ impressive stats this year underscore what the league is missing: he’s averaging 26.6 points, 6.3 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game, with a field goal percentage of 50.7%. That’s a massive leap from last season’s 20.2 points, 5.8 assists, 3.7 rebounds, and 46.0% shooting. His contributions were so vital that he ranked eighth in Basketball Reference’s live MVP Tracker early in the season, especially during stretches when LeBron James was sidelined.
Free Agency Implications
Beyond the immediate on-court impact, Reaves’ injury could ripple into his offseason plans. Last summer, he turned down a four-year, $89 million extension from the Lakers, positioning himself for a bigger payday. As an unrestricted free agent this coming summer, projections had him in line for a five-year max contract worth $241 million from Los Angeles or a four-year, $178 million deal elsewhere.
However, the extended absence might temper those expectations slightly, as teams evaluate his durability. That said, Reaves has expressed loyalty to the Lakers, the organization that gave him his shot after he went undrafted in 2021. In a recent interview with ESPN’s Dave McMenamin, he hinted at flexibility: “I’m not eying a gigantic number that don’t make sense,” suggesting he might accept a team-friendly deal to stay in purple and gold.
Looking Ahead for the Lakers
The Lakers sit in a precarious position without Reaves, who has been a key offensive engine alongside Anthony Davis and LeBron James. The team will need to adjust strategies, perhaps leaning more on perimeter defense and pick-and-roll sets with other guards. Fans and analysts alike will be monitoring Reaves’ progress closely, hoping Stotts’ timeline proves conservative rather than prophetic.
In the meantime, the Lakers’ medical staff will prioritize a full recovery to avoid any long-term issues with the calf or connected Achilles tendon. For now, it’s official: Austin Reaves’ return is mapped out, but patience will be key for both the player and the franchise. Stay tuned for updates as the re-evaluation approaches in late January.