BOSTON — As the offseason calendar flips to crunch time, the Red Sox front office is staring down a classic roster squeeze: Tuesday’s 4 p.m. ET deadline to shield top prospects from the Rule 5 Draft, followed by Friday’s 8 p.m. non-tender frenzy. With the 40-man already maxed out at 40, Craig Breslow & Co. have to play chess — and someone’s getting sacrificed.
The good news for Red Sox Nation? Homegrown flamethrower Tanner Houck just survived the cut.
Despite undergoing Tommy John in August — wiping out pretty much all of 2026 — and a projected $3.95 million arb salary that won’t buy a single inning next year, multiple sources told MassLive on Monday that Boston has zero plans to non-tender the former All-Star. Yeah, the same guy who hits triple digits with that filthy slurve and still has one more year of control before free agency (whenever the heck the 2027 season actually happens amid labor drama). Cutting him loose to save a few bucks felt like a real possibility with the roster logjam, but the Sox are betting on Houck’s upside in ’27 and beyond. Tendering him keeps the door open for arb talks — or maybe even a sneaky long-term extension that buys out his final year and keeps a potential ace in the fold.
Houck wins the survival battle. Now, who’s getting thrown overboard?
Enter Nathaniel Lowe, the veteran first baseman who looked like a savvy late-summer pickup after the Nationals dumped him… until a brutal down year made that $13.5 million arbitration projection feel like highway robbery. With Triston Casas expected back healthy and the Sox hunting bigger bats in free agency or via trade, Lowe is the screaming obvious non-tender casualty — maybe the most obvious in the entire league. He could test the market, circle back on a cheaper deal, but don’t bet the house on it. The writing’s been on the wall for weeks: Boston’s not paying north of $13 mil for a corner guy coming off a season that got him DFA’d mid-year.
To make room for the kids on Tuesday, expect some early action — small trades pop like fireworks on Rule 5 eve, or the Sox could just pull the plug four days ahead of schedule. Hard-throwing righty David Sandlin is a stone-cold lock to get added after dominating Double-A and Triple-A (3.97 ERA, 71 K in 70.1 IP). The flame-throwing prospect touches 100 and was in the late-season call-up mix before a bullpen experiment fizzled. Other names in the mix: lefties Shane Drohan and Hayden Mullins, injured righty Yordanny Monegro, Jedixson Paez, and electric outfielder Miguel Bleis. Boston won’t protect them all, but at least one or two more spots need clearing — pronto.
On the arb front, the rest looks safe: Kutter Crawford, Romy Gonzalez, Casas, and Brennan Bernardino are no-brainer tenders at bargain prices. Connor Wong gets the nod too after Breslow’s public thumbs-up last week (projected $1.6M). Cooper Criswell already inked his $800K deal. But fringe arms like Josh Winckowski ($800K projection) and lefty Jovani Morán are sweating, and the utility infield crowd (Vaughn Grissom, David Hamilton, Nate Eaton, Nick Sogard) could see some winter shuffling.
Bottom line: Houck lives to fight another day (well, in 2027 anyway), but Lowe’s time in Boston is almost certainly toast. The Red Sox are clearing deck for the next wave — and maybe, just maybe, signaling they’re ready to swing big this winter. Buckle up, Fenway faithful. Roster reckoning week is here.