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THE JOKIC TAX: Golden State’s Nightmare Scenario Is Here, And Kuminga Is The Unfortunate Price

Jonathan Kuminga seized his starting opportunity in the Golden State Warriors’ season-opening victory against the Los Angeles Lakers, delivering a performance that showcased his growth and potential. However, as the Warriors prepare for their home opener against the Denver Nuggets on Thursday, October 23, 2025, head coach Steve Kerr faces a daunting dilemma. The presence of three-time MVP Nikola Jokic forces Golden State into an impossible lineup decision, with Kuminga potentially paying the price for a matchup-driven adjustment.

Portland Trail Blazers v Golden State Warriors
Portland Trail Blazers v Golden State Warriors

In Tuesday’s 119-109 win over the Lakers, the Warriors deployed a small-ball frontcourt featuring Jimmy Butler, Kuminga, and Draymond Green. Kuminga shined in nearly 34 minutes of action, contributing 17 points, nine rebounds, and six assists. His third-quarter explosion—13 points on a perfect 5-of-5 shooting—fueled a 35-25 period that secured the victory. The 22-year-old’s rebounding and playmaking drew praise from Kerr, Butler, Green, and Stephen Curry, cementing his case as a starter. Yet, the challenge of facing Jokic, arguably the NBA’s best player, complicates Kerr’s plans.

Jokic’s dominance demands a defensive response that the Warriors’ small lineup may struggle to provide. Asking Green to guard the 6’11” Serbian superstar, who combines size, skill, and vision, could be a recipe for disaster. Instead, Kerr may turn to Al Horford, the 39-year-old veteran who joined Golden State this season. Despite giving up size himself, Horford has a proven track record against Jokic. During a March 2025 game with the Boston Celtics, Horford played a pivotal role in limiting Jokic, nearly reaching his season-high in points while anchoring the defense for 35 minutes. As Jay King of The Athletic noted, “Horford, easily the Celtics’ best matchup for Jokić, never ran out of gas.”

With Horford slated to rest during Friday’s back-to-back against the Portland Trail Blazers, Kerr might extend his minutes to 25-28 to combat Jokic on Thursday. Starting Horford would likely mean benching Kuminga, whose starting role was initially a result of Moses Moody’s injury. Another option is to go big and shift third-year guard Brandin Podziemski to the bench, though Podziemski’s quieter performance against the Lakers makes this less likely.

Kerr’s decision is fraught with consequences. Keeping Kuminga in the starting lineup rewards his breakout performance but risks being overpowered by Jokic. Starting Horford prioritizes defensive stability yet sidelines a young star who just proved his worth. The “Jokic Tax” looms large, forcing Golden State to weigh short-term matchup needs against long-term development. Whatever Kerr chooses, the ramifications will ripple through the Warriors’ season.