For the second consecutive season, the Denver Nuggets were sent packing in the first round, this time by the Minnesota Timberwolves in six games. What made the exit particularly painful was how thoroughly out of sorts the Nuggets looked on offense—the very side of the ball that defined them as one of the league’s most dominant teams during the regular season.
Denver entered the playoffs as the NBA’s premier offensive machine. They led the league with an offensive rating of 121.2 and averaged a league-high 122.1 points per game. Their success was built heavily on elite three-point shooting. The Nuggets finished the regular season with the best three-point percentage in the NBA at 39.6%, ahead of the Milwaukee Bucks (38.7%). Even more impressive, they led the league in wide-open three-point shooting at 42.8%, more than two points better than the second-place Charlotte Hornets.
None of that carried over against Minnesota.
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In the series, Denver shot just 31.1% from three-point range—third-worst among all first-round teams. On wide-open threes, their accuracy plummeted to 32.1%, a mark that would have ranked dead last in the league during the regular season. As Lev Akabas of Sportico highlighted in his data visualization, the drop-off was stark: the best three-point shooting team in the NBA by a wide margin had suddenly become one of the worst.
The Nuggets also attempted fewer threes, averaging 32.2 per game in the postseason compared to 35.8 in the regular season. The combination of volume and efficiency collapse sent their offensive rating tumbling from 121.2 to 108.2—a dramatic decline that proved impossible to overcome.
The individual numbers are even more jarring. Jamal Murray, who shot 47.7% on wide-open threes during the regular season, managed only 27.8% against the Timberwolves. Nikola Jokić saw his wide-open three-point percentage fall from 48.4% to 20.0%. Even Cameron Johnson, typically a reliable shooter, dropped from 45.8% to 28.6% on open looks. These were not marginal declines; they were historically poor performances from players who had thrived in space all year.
While Minnesota’s aggressive, active defense undoubtedly played a role in contesting shots and disrupting rhythm, it does not fully explain the Nuggets’ inability to convert wide-open opportunities. Whether the cause was mental—perhaps the series had Denver rattled—or physical exhaustion after a long season, the result was a shocking offensive breakdown driven primarily by an ice-cold shooting streak.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves were on fire. Minnesota converted 44.7% of its wide-open threes in the series, a mark that would have led the entire NBA during the regular season. That scorching shooting more than compensated for the absences of key contributors Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, and Ayo Dosunmu.
It remains to be seen whether Minnesota’s hot stretch from beyond the arc was a six-game anomaly or the start of a sustainable trend. Their upcoming opponents, the San Antonio Spurs, will present a far more formidable defensive challenge than Denver did.
For the Nuggets, the exit leaves plenty of questions. A team built on offensive precision and shooting gravity saw both evaporate at the worst possible time. In the end, the simplest explanation for their collapse was the most painful one: when it mattered most, the shots that made them great simply would not fall.