The Golden State Warriors have spent the 2025-26 season climbing uphill. Every step forward has been met with a setback. Every reason for optimism has been undercut by another injury, another loss, another reminder that this was never going to be the year they imagined.
And yet, here they are. Still standing. Still fighting. Still refusing to go quietly.
On Tuesday night, the Warriors beat the Sacramento Kings 110-105, moving to 37-42 on the season. It was a victory, and in a season like this one, victories are not to be taken for granted. But the win also cemented something the organization had been dreading: Golden State is locked into the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference.
That means the path to the playoffs—already treacherous—just became a nightmare.
The Warriors will now have to win two consecutive road games in the NBA play-in tournament just to capture the No. 8 seed. And if they somehow pull that off, their reward will be a first-round matchup against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder—a team that has owned the West all season and shows no signs of slowing down.
It’s the hardest road of all. And for a franchise that has been to the mountaintop more times than most, this is uncharted territory.
The Math: What the No. 10 Seed Actually Means
Let’s start with the cold, hard numbers.
At 37-42, the Warriors cannot finish higher than 10th in the Western Conference. With three games remaining, the teams ahead of them have built insurmountable leads. That means Golden State will open the play-in tournament on the road—probably against either the Portland Trail Blazers (40-39) or the Los Angeles Clippers (41-38)—in the 9 vs. 10 matchup.
Win that game, and they advance to face the loser of the 7 vs. 8 matchup, again on the road. Win that one, and they secure the No. 8 seed and a date with the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs.
Two games. Both on the road. Both win-or-go-home. Both against teams with better records.
It’s not impossible. But it’s close.
Anthony Slater of ESPN put it bluntly: “The Warriors are now locked into the 10th seed. They’ll need to win two road games next week to get into the playoffs and a 1 v 8 matchup with the Thunder.”
No spin. No sugar-coating. Just the reality of a season that has tested the Warriors’ resilience like no other.
The Injury Ravaged Season That Led to This Point
To understand how the Warriors ended up here, you have to look back at the wreckage of the last several months.
Stephen Curry, the greatest shooter in NBA history, missed 27 consecutive games during the dog days of the season. Chronic knee pain sidelined the franchise’s heart and soul just as the team was starting to find its footing. And as if that wasn’t enough, Jimmy Butler—the Warriors’ other superstar, the player they acquired to be Curry’s co-pilot—suffered a torn ACL that ended his season.
Two superstars. Two devastating absences. A season that had promised so much suddenly hanging by a thread.
The front office tried to patch the holes. They traded for Kristaps Porzingis at the deadline, hoping the unicorn big man could provide the scoring and rim protection the team desperately needed. But Porzingis, too, has battled health concerns, missing games and struggling to find rhythm in a new system.
Curry is back now. He’s healthy. He’s playing at an All-NBA level. But the supporting cast around him is a patchwork of veterans, young players, and mid-season acquisitions who have never quite figured out how to play together.
That’s not an excuse. It’s an explanation. And it’s the reality the Warriors will carry into the play-in tournament.
The Thunder Loom: A Reward That Feels Like a Punishment
Let’s be honest about what awaits the Warriors if they somehow survive the play-in tournament.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the reigning NBA champions. They are led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning league MVP and the favorite to win the award again this season. They have the best record in the Western Conference and are three games clear of the San Antonio Spurs with three to play.
The Thunder have not officially clinched the No. 1 seed—the Spurs own the tiebreaker and could theoretically catch them if they win out and OKC loses out—but it would take a miracle of biblical proportions for that to happen.
In all likelihood, the Thunder will enter the playoffs as the top seed, rested, healthy, and hungry for another title. And the Warriors, if they make it out of the play-in, would face them in the first round.
It’s not a matchup anyone would envy. The Thunder have owned the Warriors this season. They are younger, deeper, and more explosive. And while Curry gives Golden State a puncher’s chance in any single game, winning four out of seven against that team seems like a fantasy.
The Draft Lottery Conundrum: A Silver Lining That Comes with a Cost
Here’s the twist that makes the Warriors’ situation even more complicated.
If Golden State makes the playoffs, they will be disqualified from the draft lottery. That means no chance at moving up into the top four. No chance at selecting one of the best players from what is widely considered the best draft class in recent memory.
It’s a cruel calculus. Success on the court comes at the expense of future assets. And for a team that is aging, capped out, and desperately in need of young talent, that’s a real consideration.
But the Warriors have never been a franchise to prioritize the future over the present. They have always competed. They have always believed that as long as Curry is healthy, they have a chance.
That belief will be tested in the coming days.
The Likely Opponents: Clippers or Blazers in the First Play-In Game
Before the Warriors can even think about the Thunder, they have to get through the first round of the play-in tournament. And that means facing either the Portland Trail Blazers or the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Clippers currently hold a 41-38 record and own the tiebreaker over the Blazers with a 2-1 advantage in the season series. But the two teams play once more—on Friday, April 10, in Portland—before the regular season ends. That game could determine who finishes 8th and who finishes 9th.
The Warriors, meanwhile, will face the Clippers in Los Angeles on Sunday in their final regular-season game. By then, the play-in picture will be clearer. But one thing is certain: whoever Golden State faces, it will be a battle.
The Blazers have been scrappy all season. The Clippers, when healthy, have two of the best two-way wings in the league in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Neither matchup is favorable.
But the Warriors have Curry. And as long as they have him, they have hope.
The Verdict: A Season of Survival
This is not the season the Warriors envisioned. They dreamed of championship parades and banner-raising nights. Instead, they’ve spent eight months fighting for survival.
Curry missed 27 games. Butler’s season ended before it really began. Porzingis has been in and out of the lineup. The roster has been reshuffled so many times that it’s hard to remember who was here in October.
And yet, here they are. No. 10 seed. Play-in bound. Two road wins away from a date with the defending champions.
It’s not where they wanted to be. But it’s where they are. And for a franchise that has built its identity on defying expectations, maybe that’s enough.
The Warriors will need to win two road games just to earn the right to face the Thunder. They will need Curry to be superhuman. They will need role players to step up. They will need luck, timing, and a few breaks.
It’s a long shot. But then again, so was everything the Warriors have ever accomplished.
The hardest road of all starts now.